Risky Business

With economic turmoil gripping the world and terrorist attacks popping up every couple months many Americans feel under siege. The world is a risky place no doubt and having young children has brought that fact in to focus for me with alarming clarity.

But a question that I continue to wrestle with is how accurately and effectively do we assess risk and modify our behavior accordingly?

I stumbled upon an article from "Psychology Today" that confirms my suspicions, we really stink at assessing risk.

Here is an interesting little quiz from the article that illustrates the point.

Mortal Threats

How good is your grasp of risk?

1. What's more common in the United States, (a) suicide or (b) homicide?
2. What's the more frequent cause of death in the United States, (a) pool drowning or (b) falling out of bed?
3. What are the top five causes of accidental death in America, following motor-vehicle accidents, and which is the biggest one?
4. Of the top two causes of nonaccidental death in America, (a) cancer and (b) heart disease, which kills more women?
5. What are the next three causes of nonaccidental death in the United States?
6. Which has killed more Americans, bird flu or mad cow disease?
7. How many Americans die from AIDS every year, (a) 12,995, (b) 129,950, or (c) 1,299,500?
8. How many Americans die from diabetes every year? (a) 72,820, (b) 728,200, or (c) 7,282,000?
9. Which kills more Americans, (a) appendicitis or (b) salmonella?
10. Which kills more Americans, (a) pregnancy and childbirth or (b) malnutrition?

ANSWERS (all refer to number of Americans per year, on average):

1. a
2. a
3. In order: drug overdose, fire, choking, falling down stairs, bicycle accidents
4. b
5. In order: stroke, respiratory disease, diabetes
6. No American has died from either one
7. a
8. a
9. a
10. b

Sources:

• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Division of Vital Statistics)
• National Transportation Safety Board

The article identifies ten key ways we inaccurately assess risk:

I. We Fear Snakes, Not Cars
Risk and emotion are inseparable.

II. We Fear Spectacular, Unlikely Events
Fear skews risk analysis in predictable ways.

III. We Fear Cancer But Not Heart Disease
We underestimate threats that creep up on us.

This sounds like a plausible reason why there is a collective yawn from many Americans when they hear about the global catastrophe that climate change might bring.

IV. No Pesticide in My Backyard—Unless I Put it There
We prefer that which (we think) we can control.

So my principled stand against using lawn fertilizers these last three years (coinciding with the birth of my first son) might be all for naught? Rather than being embarrassed by this realization of my overreaction I am somewhat relieved because boy does my lawn need some rehabilitation.

V. We Speed Up When We Put Our Seat belts On
We substitute one risk for another.

VI. Teens May Think Too Much About Risk—And Not Feel Enough
Why using your cortex isn't always smart.

VII. Why Young Men Will Never Get Good Rates on Car Insurance
The "risk thermostat" varies widely.

I've heard several people hypothesize that we wouldn't be in this horrible economic mess if more women worked on Wall Street because they are less prone to take ridiculous risks.

VIII. We Worry About Teen Marijuana Use, But Not About Teen Sports
Risk arguments cannot be divorced from values.

IX. We Love Sunlight But Fear Nuclear Power
Why "natural" risks are easier to accept.

X. We Should Fear Fear Itself
Why worrying about risk is itself risky.

This seems like a critical point as we attempt to wrestle with the problem of terrorism post 9/11.

If I had an entrepreneurial bone in my body I think I would design a computer software program that filtered out all those sensational horror stories on cnn.com and ABC News that hype up the freakish injury or death of a child. I would also modify the television rating system with those indecipherable labels like TV-MA or TV-14 with an additional one that warns when there is harm done to children: I'm looking at you CSI and Law and Order:SVU!

So having read the article and written this post both you and I should be all set to go forth and see the world as it is, right?

C'est la vie.