Deflategate, Patriots: PSI, Cheatriots, call it what you will. What is clear is that we are beginning to understand that this entire episode was a modern day witch hunt which ultimately will damage those carrying the torches and pitchforks more than it will tarnish the New England Patriots and its accomplishments. Few people have the time to follow every development with this story but when one pulls back the lens five key issues emerge and all five point to vindication for the Patriots and shame for its critics.
Issue #1: Statistical Analysis of Fumble Rate Post 2007
This may be the most important issue since it implies a significant competitive advantage for the Patriots and appears backed by statistical rigor. But like much of this scandal the claims do not hold up under scrutiny. This analysis has been debunked multiple times by legitimate statisticians. The bottom line is that that "analysis" is bad methodology using bad data.
- http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/your-guide-to-deflate-gateballghazi-related-statistical-analyses/
Issue #2: Ball Pressure
Chris Mortensen's report that 11 of the 12 footballs were 2 psi under the limit set off this firestorm which quickly snowballed and consumed the entire first week leading up to the Super Bowl. Now we know that this report is completely falling apart. The latest from Ian Rappaport states that only one of the balls, coincidently the one ball that happened to be in the possession of the Colts was 2 psi under, that many of them were just a "few ticks under 12.5."Two PSI versus "a few ticks" is critical because some of the best scientists and laboratories in the country have demonstrated that the ideal gas law and basic experimentation explains that any football taken from a 75F dry room to 50F wet field will loose some pressure.
The retort to these points is what about the Colts footballs? Unfortunately we know from other reports that the NFL did not record the starting PSIs of the footballs for either team. So we have no idea at what PSI the Colts' balls started. Maybe Andrew Luck is like Aaron Rodgers and purposefully over-inflates his balls over the league limit and hopes not to get caught. (It is interesting that this was casually discussed in front of the entire nation on Monday Night Football and no one batted an eye; in fact it was portrayed by Jim Nantz as an admirable quirk of Aaron Rodgers) I admit it is not necessarily likely Luck wants the ball over-inflated, but maybe he likes them at 13.0? The bottom line is we have no idea because we have no data, just a witch hunt. We also know from Rodger Goodell's "State of the NFL" press conference that footballs have never been tested at halftime so we have no control group to work with. I'm not a scientist but I would think one might like to have a control group and some data to make any type of reasonable conclusion.
The only other information we have is that an equipment manager took the Colts and Patriots balls into a bathroom for 98 seconds. This is the proverbial Rorschach Test in this case. If one is inclined to think of the Patriots as cheaters then it is obvious that something nefarious went on in that bathroom. If one is inclined to believe the Patriots, Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady then it is obvious that the old guy just went in to take a leak before going on the field for the next three hours.
Issue #3: Leaks from the League
This brings me to my third point which is the slipshod way the League office has handled this situation and revealed its intention to smear the Patriots with half truths and innuendos. First we have the damning Mortensen report on the 11 of 12 balls which started all the hysteria. Only to find out over a week later that that report is likely wrong. Just as damning is how we found out what happened with the equipment manager and the bathroom. Our first report, clearly leaked from the League office to Jay Glazer:
JayGlazer @JayGlazer Breaking news: sources tell @FOXSports the NFL has zeroed in on a locker room attendant w Patriots who allegedly took balls from officials locker room to another area on way to field. Sources say they have interviewed him and additionally have video. Still gauging if any wrong doing occurred with him but he is strong person of interest
WOW!? They have a "strong person of interest" that they are "zeroed in on" and that he took the balls to "another area" of the field. W have the smoking gun, the NFL has the Patriots dead to rights. Hurray! But wait we then find out from Mike Florio that "the other “area on way to field” is a bathroom" and "the evidence comes from a surveillance video that was discovered by the Patriots and given to the NFL early in the investigation." and "the video shows the employee in the bathroom for approximately 90 seconds."
My question is why is the first report to Jay Glazer so incomplete? The only conclusion I can draw is there is someone in the league office that is trying to smear the Patriots.
It appears that the NFL executive who leaked the initial report to Glazer was not pleased that Florio's report succeeded in making his leak look foolish and melodramatic. This led to a follow up report from Florio: "One highly-placed official with an NFL team “took the top off” a dozen balls in a mere 56 seconds. “Next time I’m gonna pee as well,” the source said."
This story raises serious questions about whether Roger Goodell has any control over the League office and whether a fair investigation is being conducted. That is why Robert Kraft was right to throw down the gauntlet and demand the NFL better have the goods or heads will roll. The PR smear campaign coming from this official is embarrassing. And lest we not forget that when this was all happening everyone is still assuming that 11 of the 12 balls were 2 psi under-inflated which is now seriously in doubt.
Issue #4: Reaction from Former Players
My fourth point is that the reaction from ex-players and ESPN talking heads is ridiculous. Watching Mark Brunell cry on national TV was rich. I feel sorry that he lost all his money in bad real estate deals and has to actually work a real job. But who the hell is he to call Tom Brady a liar and cheater? Please. Almost every single player I've heard criticize Brady is a player that has been smoked by Brady and the Patriots over the last fifteen years. (Brunell, Hawkins, Bettis, Faulk, etc.) And the other players who are quick to judge and demean Brady and the Patriots' accomplishments are all folks who have records and reputations that are being challenged by Brady and the Patriots (Aikman, Rice, Montana, Haley). I'm surprised these players are so insecure and thin skinned. Montana and Rice are legends and gods and they soil themselves getting down in this muck.Here is Jerry Rice claiming that what the Patriots did deserves an asterisks which eternally tarnishes their legacy but that his use of illegal stickum should be ignored because, hey, everybody was doing it. Trying to follow Rice's logic makes one wonder if he thinks we are stupid.
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4778014/jerry-rice-drops-the-ball-in-criticizing-new-england-patriots
Issue #5: The Patriots in Context
Which brings me to my final point. I think the actual facts and evidence make it clear the Patriots did nothing wrong. But I know there are those that will disagree no matter what. However it is a little rich being lectured by former players and fans eager to put that damning asterisks next to the Patriots championships. It seems we need to rush them to the fainting couch lest they faint at the sight of such debauchery. In forty years as a professional football coach Bill Belichick has been reprimanded once by the League for breaking the rules. And yet he is portrayed as a pariah and evil genius par excellence. Tom Brady has never been accused of cheating in his fifteen year career.I would argue that the Spygate infraction is laughable compared to the cheating that has been carried out by numerous other organizations. Mike Florio does a nice, but not quite comprehensive job, of covering many rules infraction by other teams.
Ask yourself if Spygate more or less troubling than:
--Jerry Rice and 49er wide receivers using stickum on their gloves
--Bronco linemen using vaseline on their uniforms
--Mike Tomlin tripping a player about to score a touchdown
--In the 1990s, the Broncos won Super Bowl trophies in 1997 and 1998 with the assistance of salary-cap violations from 1996 through 1998. Denver eventually lost a third-round pick, paid a whopping $950,000 fine, and a still-unnamed agent and a player donated $100,000 to charity.
--In 2012 the Chargers were caught using a towel to apply stickum to receivers gloves.
--The Jets were fined $100,000 for the wall of humanity former strength coach Sal Alosi placed along the sideline during a punt play to impede former Dolphins gunner Nolan Carroll. Few believed Alosi was acting on his own or without the knowledge of former special-teams coordinator Mike Westhoff or former head coach Rex Ryan.
--The Minnesota Vikings played their coldest home game in 38 years on Sunday, when they beat the Carolina Panthers in 12-degree temperatures at TCF Bank Stadium. As both teams dealt with the freezing temperatures, Fox cameras showed sideline attendants using heaters to warm up game balls, which is against league rules. NFL vice president of officiating Dean Blandino said Monday morning on NFL Network that officials warned both the Vikings and Panthers not to heat up the balls during Sunday's game, and would remind teams this week not to heat game balls.
--The Atlanta Falcons pumping artificial crowd noise into the stadium.
And yet despite these numerous and easy to find violations of NFL rules I don't see anyone clamoring to suspend a coach or player for an entire year. It seems people want to nuke Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's reputation and careers. Is it because they are egregious cheaters who threaten the integrity of the game of football or is it something else?
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