Monday, February 13, 2012

Demography is destiny, for better or worse.


Demographic trends contain nothing but good news for those of us who are eager to see gay men and women have the right to marry whoever the hell they want. Additionally Democrats are eager to point to national demographic trends that identify hispanics, who overwhelmingly vote Democrat, as the fastest growing group in the country. It is hoped that they will soon help usher in a national Democratic governing coalition that will rival the FDR/New Deal coalition that dominated U.S. politics and policy from 1932 to 1980. These two charts summarize the demographic trends phenomenon nicely.



But sometimes when one lives by the sword one dies by the sword and there is an accompanying demographic trend that threatens liberal interests that is less talked about. While we may welcome the replacement of a generation of people who are homophobic and xenophobic we are simultaneously losing a generation who remembers an America before Social Security. Liberal or conservative, odds are if you are over the age of 65 you support the Social Security program.

One can argue that support for Social Security changes as an individual gets older but it is also plausible that support for Social Security falls as the country as a whole loses its collective memory of a country when intolerable numbers of seniors lived in poverty.
Our structural deficits are caused by three programs, Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid and the Military. For those of us who would like to see the lion's share of those cuts come from the defense sector we must remain vigilant that those who know best the critical importance of a strong social safety net are leaving us. It will be a tragedy if succeeding generations are allowed to forget this fact.

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